Abstract

In order to further increase the efficiency of electrified vehicle drives, various predictive energy management strategies (driving strategies) have been developed. Therefore, a generic prediction approach is worked out in this paper, which enables a robust prediction of all traction torque-relevant variables for such strategies. It is intended to be useful for various types of electrification; however, the focus of this work is to the application in hybrid electric vehicles. In contrast to other approaches, no additional information (e.g., telemetry data) is required and thus a reliable prediction is guaranteed at all times. In particular, approaches from the fields of stochastics and artificial intelligence have proven to be effective for such purposes. Within the scope of this work, both so-called Markov Chains and Neural Networks are applied to predict real driving profiles within a required time horizon. Therefore, at first, a detailed analysis of the driver-specific ride characteristics is performed to ensure that real-world operation is represented appropriately. Next, the two models are implemented and the calibration is further discussed. The subsequent direct comparison of the two approaches is performed based on the described methodology, which includes both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Hereby, the quality of the predictions is evaluated using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) calculations as well as analyses in time domain. Based on the presented results, an appropriate approach is finally recommended.